Friday, August 22, 2025

Appreciation Expectations

 My experience with the Great Recession in the US suggests that one of the things that makes unwinding a property boom difficult is that an expectation of appreciation (due to limited supply) has become baked into housing prices. So even if house prices don't fall, even a reduction in the rate of appreciation is hurtful a wide variety of owners, from long-term householders to brand new purchasers.

You just have to think about a house as a financial instrument, like a stock or a bond. It provides a dividend (in terms of rental income, or owners equivalent rent), is a security is costs money to acquire. But like a 'growth stock', there is an expectation that the value will increase over time. 

There used to be a lot of debate over whether housing was a good investment or not. That's died down, largely because I think the empirical data is clear--it's not. The difference is largely due to dividends--you can reinvest the dividends from money you put in the market in the market. But you cannot reinvest the  benefits of having been provided housing.