Wednesday, July 15, 2026

Single-family construction headwinds

I suspect that single-family construction will continue to face headwinds. Every location is a trade-off between transportation costs and structure costs, and the components of suburban transportation costs (cars + gasoline) have gone up a lot over the past year. Interest rates are up, and thus so are financing costs. Car insurance rates also up substantially. Cars are also becoming more capital intensive, due to vehicle electrification. People are bringing down their fuel costs by paying more up front but taking on more financing costs to be able to pay more up front.

Remote work won't save the single-family home market. The pandemic induced wave of remote work has crested and is receding. The tide is still coming in, but this particular wave is ebbing. And with it, the need for an extra bedroom to use as a home office. No one who bought a house during the pandemic is going to shift back to urban living, but the number of people making that transition is going to drop off.

The cost of reversing the transition from urban renter to suburban owner is forbiddingly expensive: Transaction costs of home purchase impose a financial cost, home improvement customizations create sunk costs, etc. But the cost of making that transition in the first place is also costly--a second car becomes a practical necessity.