Thursday, December 30, 2021

Reflections on the nature of sprawl

Fundamental characteristic of sprawl is not, as often mooted, low density. Many naturally occurring places are low density. Rather, it is the segregation of uses that most characterizes sprawl, and is the most problematic element of sprawl, for it is what causes the most problematic outcome of sprawl: An excessive amount of driving. 

It is the separation between home and work that is the problem. Separation means distances are greater. This reduces the viability of active transport (walking, biking), and also reduces the efficiency of transit.

 Perhaps things would be different if housing and employment were clustered near transit stops. But they are not--while employment is naturally concentrated in a limited land area, in a limited number of establishments, housing is dispersed across a wide area. This dispersion of housing should not be considered natural, but unnatural--it is the result of a politically determined, rigorously policed, and financially subsidized [1].

 The argument is not that people would choose a higher density, but rather people would accept a higher density if it meant a shorter commuter or lower rent. The present circumstance denies the opportunity to make this decision.  

The essence of a city is to minimize transportation costs through co-location of economic activity. Correspondingly, all cities in history located where transportation costs were lowest--ports, rivers, crossroads. Everything else is a 'town' - a central nub of services for the surrounding area. 

Let's stop talking about the suburb as cities. They aren't. Suburbs are highly concentrated hamlets--clusters of housing. Clusters of shops spring up to serve them, acting as main streets and high streets once did. Unlike naturally occurring towns, the employees and their families don't live in down, but in the hamlets near town. Why? Because they have to--the separation of use obliges them to and forbids the mix of use. No 'live-work' units are legal.

Sprawl is problematic because of the separation of uses, which increases the distance required to travel and thereby induces auto-dependence. Auto-dependence begets auto-use, which begets traffic congestion. Efforts to reduce traffic congestion by increasing capacity (in both roadways and parking lots) further reduce average density, increase average travel distances, and further reinforce auto-dependence. And so on, in a doom loop. 

However, there is a long-term twist to this doom loop: At some point, the land-use efficiency drops below the level where the taxable value that can be extracted from the land is less than the maintenance cost of the system: maintaining roadways. (Highways are another story--most highways are funded at a state/federal level. Hence there is no need for a locality to be functional to maintain them--value can be shifted from somewhere else, via the gas tax.)

Throughout history, population and employment have been co-located; a human can only commute so far in a day. Empirical work suggests this averages about half an hour a day, each way [3]. Hence, a mono-centric city can only be so large. Lot coverage can only be increased so far--multi-level structures become feasible with surprisingly low population densities, as evinced by split-level suburban homes. But structures can only go so high--masonry buildings top out at something like 10 stories, and the additional cost of a vertical climb means almost nothing taller than 6 stories has ever been worth it without elevators. That the highest stories once had the lowest rents is telling--as is the "Belle etage' of an elevated first floor as the ideal.

Separation of uses induces unnecessary travel. Splitting work from home means people must travel further. While the original buyer may have been pleased with the change and been willing to travel 10 minutes more for twice the house, every succeeding resident has been stuck with that decision. And will be stuck, because housing is durable and we've made redevelopment impossible. Everyone wants a detached house, but everyone wants a pony too. But surprisingly few people are willing to pay for ponies and may decide their lives are better off with some other transportation alternative. The presumed inevitability of the enduring nature of sprawl comes from the systematic elimination of alternatives. This is why things like the triplexes, backyard duplexes, etc are so shocking (and so freeing) because they reveal that the current context is only as fixed as we choose to make it. 

Until we make the choice to permit our urban environment to change, to let density increase in concordance with the increased demand for it, all our transportation choices and mobility alternative experiments are just tinkering, and not enough to move the needle. 

Ironically, as an urban planner, I hate Euclidian zoning. As an urbanist, it's almost natural. The best places aren't zoned. Regulated, yes. But never in the American '11 different types of residential zone' flavor. I hear tell Japan has a national zoning code, with a limited number of zones. I admit some jealously and wish more of our states would follow suit.

Low density is a product of sprawl, rather than a cause of sprawl. Left alone, any amount of sprawling development would naturally densify, developing a radial polycentric form with a single primary center and manifest radiations of secondary and tertiary sub-centers. Start with a uniform field of homes (and uniform streets) and watch it emerge. More central paths are used more often. At some point, a congestion equilibrium is reached. Some arbitrarily widened paths, with lower congestion, will receive more traffic, drawing additional traffic through it's tributaries until the same equilibrium is reached. Correspondingly, any business devoted to selling things to other human beings (goods/services) will also concentrate along high-traffic paths, simply to maximize exposure to customers. And the wealthier occupants of said shops will locate at an equilibrium location that is close enough to commute, but maximally distant from the nuisance (pollution and noise) of said traffic. The wealthier you get, the more space you will take up, and the more effectively you will buffer yourself from other people. Given infinite resources (and teleporter booths), we would have had private demi-planes and space habitats. But until the transportation is both free and frictionless, locational preferences will be weighted against transportation costs.

I don't want everything to be different: I want the option for different places to do different things. And the imposition of uniformity (via state and federal highway regulations) is contrary to that. Easy to claim I've let my preferences inform my ethics, and that other people like the way things are just fine. To which I can only respond: Accepting what appears to be unchangeable is very much the opposite of choice: offering chocolate is not a choice. Offering chocolate and imitation chocolate is not a choice, nor is luxury reserve chocolate and basic chocolate. Offer even the whiff of strawberry, and see if people still want chocolate.

But, back to sprawl: separating uses results in increasing travel distances, which results in increasing auto dependence, which necessitates devoting more and more land area to automobility (primarily parking). Ensuring the sufficiency of ROW demands enormous public expenditure, leveraged through a regressive gas tax. Ensuring sufficiency of parking places a burden on any hopeful business; making re-using an existing site a nightmare---an angle I had not considered. In addition to its burdens of ROW and parking, sprawl also destructively idles vast tracts of land between their initial use and when land-rents support multi-level parking structures. Certainly, there are interim uses, but they are marginal: the original structure was efficiently designed only for the first tenant: and later tenants face a deadweight of excess parking (prospective tenants with parking needs to be judged in excess of existing supply being regulatorily prevented from coming into operation). 

Element not heretofore explored: We have spoken of people and jobs as one class. This is nonsense. Different people make different amounts of money. Even assuming an initial random assignment of agents with different home and workplace locations, sorting would follow, as agents moved between homes like hermit crabs between shells, chasing vacancies in such a way as to reduce commutes. (A simplification, ignoring nuisances and presuming each house is identical and can be fixed up/decorated to match the owner's income/wealth level). For the sake of a thought experiment, let us assume 3 general classes (as the American Community Survey does), and call them poor, middle-class and wealthy, with each class able to outbid the prior for locations. Hence, if a vacancy emerges, a wealthy household gets 'dibs' and rights of first refusal, and the poor have to make do with whatever locations not previously selected. In a nuisance-free context, those locations will be the worst, most peripheral, and least accessible locations. 

Group selection is another wrinkle--assume that people like to live next to people of their own class-similar mores, customs, affordances, rituals, etc, reducing the nuisance of living in proximity to others--if they are obstreperous, they are at least so in ways you judge understandable. While there is some claim the less wealthy would like to live next to the wealthy, this is a nuisance issue--the poor seeking to avoid the ills of poverty. Living next to next-class-up is unwelcome--the middle-class are always calling the cops on the poor, and the wealthy are always siccing their lawyers on the middle-class. Which is, in its own way, a nuisance issue. 

This aside: poor in most peripheral locations; wealthy in most central. Wealthy will probably also maintain an exurban, extremely non-central location. The more wealthy, the more comfortable it will be, and the longer they will be able to stay there. The minimal threshold would be skipping out for the weekend, the maximal threshold would be having a 'summer home' or multiple seasonal homes to rotate among.

Employment always remains concentrated. While there may be multiple workers per household, the average number of persons/business establishments is much higher. So the ratio will always be higher for businesses, simply because businesses scale in a way that households do not--they need not rely on the natural increase to grow larger. The business also benefits from returns to scale on capital goods--gets more use (time-efficient) out of each needle, but also are able to spread the wagon over more users (cost efficient).  But biz also often more space efficient: space/worker is typically lower than space/person (highly industry dependent). Further, households have non-worker dependents (children, sick, old). The rule of thumb I recall was there was a 5:2 ratio of population to employment. So assume a 5:2 ratio of space for households vs. space for business establishments.

Sprawl is polycentric. This emerges two ways: Urban agglomeration, as existing urban centers become conjoined through expansion, and sub-center development, resulting from Christallier's  [2] urban hierarchy.

[1] The Color of law; others.

[2] Von Thunen also; Alonso, Mills, Muth. 

[3] Marchetti's constant

Politically speaking...

I'm a libertarian. Which is always a weird group to be part of, because there are left-libertarians and right-libertarians, with very little overlap between them. Indeed, that they share a name is somewhat ironic. Both are anti-authoritarian, but it is the... sort of authority each wants independence.

 'Minimal state interference' is in general common. But what form that takes... It's not a matter of taxes/laws--that's much more a rich/poor distinction than a left/right distinction. If you are rich, you pay people to know what the laws are, and which ones can be circumvented, and how much so. (If you are poor, you find out the hard way). So if you are rich, the restrictions of law are pretty minimal. So for the rich, the interference to be resisted is taxation. But perhaps this is naive--actually trying to do things in a business (some of which are innovative and non-standard), the restrictions of laws are still grating. 

It's also the basis of a moral compass. Empirical research suggests that conservatives and liberals reason from different moral premises--that liberals don't care about certain things that conservatives care deeply about. They share the same premises, but 'weigh' them differently in moral reasoning. Hence, left-libertarians differ from right-libertarians. L-libs care far more about individual liberty (in the abstract and the concrete), while R-libs care far more about customary liberties.

Sunday, December 19, 2021

On the efficiency of transit

"Transit is the most space efficient mode, and thus it should be rewarded with dedicated ROW rather than tossed into low-efficiency auto traffic" - Warren G. Wells

I hate to be the naysayer, but that's kind of irrelevant. In terms of moving people, what matters isn't space efficiency, but time-efficiency. Transit moves a lot of people per vehicle, but not a lot of people per lane. For urban traffic, the main capacity limitation are at intersections. But even there, for a dedicated transit line to be  more space-efficient than an automobile, you basically have to have 90 people on the bus, and a bus coming every 5 minutes (which is pretty high quality BRT).

The space-efficiency of transit simply isn't relevant from a transportation efficiency perspective. But the advantage of transit is enormous in terms of space efficiency, simply due to parking**. Each parking spot requires between 250-400 SF, and each car requires about 8 parking spots. So every person on the bus saves about 2500 SF of space. 10 people on bus saves half an acre of parking. 2000 people by bus saves 100 acres of parking. 

So when we talk about the efficiencies of transit, we're really talking about the space efficiency of urban land. (For pre-war transit, supplying transit transformed rural land into urban land, with the concomitant increase in rents. We need to forget about that--it was tied to a specific non-recurring historic context). For modern transit, transit in the 'light rail' era, the purpose of transit is to reduce parking demand, not transportation demand. (Transit reduces transportation demand only by forcing people to accept a crappier version of transportation, reducing their consumption of it, ie- people drinking eating fewer vegetables because the only ones they can get are rotten). 

So if we're planning fixed guide-way transit, it's all about the parking garages. Because that shows two things: a) there is a lot of transportation demand there, and the costs associated with providing parking are already high, and b) there is some (agency, corporation, muni) with the capacity and need for capital intensive transportation infrastructure. Those are where the stations need to go. Other places will get transit service, but only by virtue of being on the way.

Why b) is important: If transit efficiency is all about reducing parking demand. As a society, we've more or less made the decision that capacity improvements benefit everyone (they don't), so we're ok with government provision of roads. But we're much charier of provision of parking, because we associate parking with private land uses (never mind that it's hand-in-glove with automobility). So when we start providing rapid transit, we're really reducing parking demand at a handful of places. And those places tend to be: colleges, hospital, and civic centers. Because those are the places we've perceive as being part of the 'public' realm, and local/regional voters are willing to help those, in a civic-sense. State buildings/campuses often fall under the same penumbra, as do Federal buildings--the Feds provide half of the capital funding for new transit, and they understand the financial value of reduced parking demand.

#----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

*A bus without dedicated guide way isn't BRT, regardless of FTA's bullshit terminology. 

**Traffic engineers don't care about parking. They aren't trained for it. They only care insofar: a) access to and from it doesn't disrupt roadway capacity, and b) there is enough of it that cars don't back up onto the roads. 

Sunday, August 1, 2021

Aircraft and mass production

 Planes aren't like cars--there aren't millions of them, or even tens of thousands. Production costs get spread over a smaller # of units, so the hike is substantial, so the cost/unit matters a lot. A successful plane can go on for a long time, as increasing economies of scale result in lower cost/aircraft, even as technology moves on. In contrast, a reduction in the number of orders results in increased costs per plane, which can be enough to doom an entire production line. The doom loop is rising costs requires hiking prices, further reducing volumes and again increasing cost/unit. (F-16 fighter). Some of the cost is in development (including some R&D) and some of it in 'tooling' and setting up production lines to achieve efficiencies of scales manufacturing needs to be more than 'craft' production. 

Musings on housing and financing

 Always startles me to realize how much of the American economy is based on housing. And thereby how much places that don't build housing are knee-capping themselves.

Housing is real estate, finance, construction, banking, furnishings, decor. Any new household has to replace all the things they were sharing at their old household. Kids kind of the same way - all their things. And then all the 'personal services' for everyone. 

Partially it's population growth, but household formation is a multiplier effect on that. But one that relies on the availability of (affordable) housing. When parents start doubling up with their parents, something is going wrong. A certain amount of 'boomerang' can be expected; children saving for a house downpayment being the most innocent. 

20% down on $250k would be $50k. (Who the heck has $50k sitting in a bank account?). If I'm making $50/hour, thats $100k/year. Bookings never match that, so it's more like $81k/year. Knock of 25% of that for taxes, 54k net. My rent runs $1600, about 19k a year (35% of my net income, 24% of the gross. A central city location costs more, but keeps my transport costs low, as I can convert most of my trips into walk/bike trips). Regardless, to get to a $50k downpayment, that would be $5k a year for 10 years or 10k for 5 years. If I want a $500k house, those times double: $5k for 20 years, $10k for 10 years. 

But 'boomeranging' home for a year would be $19k in rent. Assuming extreme frugality, putting away $30k in a year still not possible. Say $15k is (out of $51k disposible). Put away $6k, boomerang for $19k, save $15k...not enough. So have to start with $16k in the bank. 

Regardless, start with a bunch of money in the bank. Most folks worse off, simply because of student debt. Assumes that eats 10% of 'disposible' income. Knocks another $5k off income. 

Design approval is state control of the market. And in the service of a very narrow goal -- the neighbors aesthetic preferences. Development review panels in Europe are recurring, a beauty project between developers to provide the best outcome for a given price. Design review panels in the US are like classroom architectural critiques--architect favor them because they are familiar, and hence comfortable. They don't give a shit whether something gets built or not--no skin off their nose if housing doesn't get built because their standards were too high. In a way, it's an adverserial process in America, like a courtroom inquiry. 

Most economic impact statements are such bullshit. Assuming that places that lease on airport couldnt lease elsewhere, or that the economic impact wouldn't be the same. As if the airport caused to be what would not otherwise be. Hokum. As much a psuedo-science as parking minima. And administration--like counting the cost of doing business as a benefit of doing business. Just adding up all the flows of money that pass through the airport and pretending the airport caused them.

The point of economic impact isn't to make reasonable assessments. It's to build a big "Benefits" number for benefit-cost ratio analysis. It's like the government sucked up the most 'modern' practices from 1970's business schools and institutionalized them. 

But a job is not a job. Some jobs are better from an economic impact standpoint. Higher wage jobs are generally better, because the money recirculates more through the economy, downward. (Why this matters, I do not know). Same for industries. I guess the longer the chain of purchases, the greater the impact. Abe buying from Bill for $5 inferior to Abe buying from Bill buying from Charlie and Damien is a $5 flow vs. a $10 flow. But I suppose it's no a direct transfer--at each step, each actor takes a slice of the pie. But it's not like Bill isn't going to spend that $5 anyway, someplace else--it's not like the money disappears. Hmm. I guess the only time money disappears is when banks do--then the 'fractional reserve multipler' vanishes. If a bank is destroyed, a very large amount of money vanishes. Money is always being destroyed, as people fail to repay loans. The trouble isn't even when all the loans aren't repaid. The crisis doesn't come until the bank run, when depositor try to get their money out of the bank, and there isn't any. 

Clearly, when a bank is 'broke', and can't deliver on withdrawals, it's done. All the equity-holders are wiped out, and the Fed pays the depositors. Question becomes -- what happens to the banks other debtees? Many people like to say "Oh, all deposits are loans, so you should treat them all the same". But I expect banks avoid some of that by just making deposits at other banks. Ah, the great fiction of finance--it's all a pyramid of debt created by fractional reserve banking. In a way, modern finance very like insurance. It only works because the market is 'deep' enough, with enough participants, for the law of averages to work out, and risks to be born. There are those among us that say that bearing risk is the role of equity, not of finance.

'Quantity of money' economic analysis seems surreal to me, when it's clearly the speed of money that matters. Maybe back in the day it mattered, because there was a lot of money just sitting (in the form of gold bars) in safes and vaults. But after the invention of fractional reserve banking, it seems absurd. Even with the gold standard, it seems absurd. Maybe it was different when it was all bank-mediated. Now, with bank-to-bank lending, fractional reserve banking is functionally exponential -- there is no limit to the amount of money that can be created. 


Tuesday, June 22, 2021

#IfIwasChiefPlanner

Since this is not a "If I were King" question, but that of a responsible head of planning, I'd focus on a variety of relatively boring changes to technical regulations most people don't know about. 

TRANSPORTATION

  1. Make it legal to 'park' parklets/food trucks on the curb for parking rates.
    Use Reid Ewing's research to estimate actual parking requirements for residential development, and map the city parking requirements accordingly
  2. SFPark-style program designed to ensure parking availability through appropriate pricing.
  3. Temporary 'holiday' on car traffic for use as outdoor space
  4. Enact a 'bollard warrant' for any location where a car is on the sidewalk twice
  5. Any neighborhood with parking issues gets a parking pass. Parking passes can be sold and transferred; no new parking passes can be created.
  6. All 2-direct cycle-ways are bollarded (to prevent drivers misunderstanding them as car-lanes).
  7. Sidewalk completeness audit, including width. Following up the next year with a sidewalk condition audit. 
  8. Narrow all collector streets to 2 10' travel lanes; add staggered curb extension along the street (chicanes) bulb-out the curbs accordingly, to a 25 mph standard; 3" mountable curb in truck relevant locations.
  9. Replace all low-traffic intersections with roundabouts.
  10. 'Bench standard' for public seating, based on Streetlight data pedestrian traffic. Sufficient seating for 2% of traffic flow. 
  11. Replace arterial on-street parking with dedicated bus lanes; median running or BAT lanes where appropriate
  12. Enact a curb-cut elimination program along arterial streets, to eliminate those that are too close to intersections, too long, or no longer relevant
  13. Ban new drive-thrus and gas stations. 
  14. Pedestrian tunnels/bridges across/under expressways at the mid-point between interchanges
  15. Replace arterial bike lanes with curb separated bike-lanesx2) establish bi-directional cycleway on one side of major streets.  
  16. Bikes lanes start with paint, then 'vertical paint', then curb separation. Where safety warrants (ie, where any cyclist is hit), add a jersey barrier
  17. Road diets on all 4-lane roads lacking safety areas/parking
  18. Get the fire chief to accept a 'length limit' for the clear space in the international fire code 
  19. Curb management program for 'conflicting' locations where parking isn't being used normally, but for restaurant pick-ups or deliveries--also for Uber/Lyft
  20. Replace on-street parking with bicycle lanes where feasible/appropriate
  21. Speed Audit: Use Streetlight to find out where average speeds > speed limit; adjust street geometric design accordingly - special focus on extreme outliers (racing)
  22. Tactical urbanism approach to add 'temporary' bike lanes through use of jersey barriers/etc.
  23. Mandatory sidewalks with geometric design associated with a 25+ mph speed limit. 
  24. Mid-block single-lane 'neckdown' in residential neighborhoods.  

LAND USE

  1. Eliminate (irrelevant) fire setbacks for masonry buildings
  2. Ban on new cul-de-sac--all streets must connect to another street. 
  3. Establish by-right ADU designs
  4. Legalize factory-built housing (limit it to larger than a trailer-width to fight off the NIMBY... maybe limit it to multi-story structures)
  5. Remove billboards as a 'compliant use'.  
  6. Residential zoning code that reflects fire-code building types. 
  7. 'Vancouverism' height for set-back exchanges on commercial office
  8. Japanese style 'shadow zoning', with height limit proportional to street width.
    1. Rivers/canals may be shadowed.
  9. Use 'senior housing' as a density beach-head, with 4-over-1 apartments. 
  10. Awnings over the public right of way do not count as 'permanent fixtures'.
  11. Legalize single-stair buildings with cross ventilation--limit # of units (or square feet/story). 
  12. Require developers to forecast property tax revenue (and costs) associated with proposed development.
  13. Mandatory condition assessments of condo structural stability. 
  14. Regulate by lot coverage and building height, not FAR. 

MISC

  1. Disclose all procurement costs - bids, contracts, etc.
  2. Eliminate employee parking allowance; change to free transit pass
  3. Publicly accessible geodatabase of all transportation assets
  4. Establish a Twitter account to crowdsource pics of traffic and building code violations
  5. Abolish design review
  6. Require public meetings to have a zoom/call-in speaker queue, so the attendees can include evening workers and people with children.
  7. Ordinance that will require a clear path on city sidewalks during construction projects
  8. Require employers who pay for or subsidize parking for their commuting employees to provide an equivalent taxable cash benefit to employees who do not drive and park
PLANS
  1. Transit Plan (Bus/Rail)
  2. Transit Oriented Development Plan
  3. Connectivity study, identifying missing active transport links
  4. Freight Access - Truck routes, routes trucks are taking that they shouldn't.
  5. Housing Audit - compare jobs-housing balance vs. regional total using 30min buffers; do it by income categories.





Sunday, June 20, 2021

Airports and Urbanized Areas

When it comes to airport enplanements, (as with most count data) the distribution is skewed: A very small number of entities represent a large portion of the total. When it comes to airports, a very small number of airports are 'primary commercial service', meaning that the airport represents more that 1% of all passenger enplanements in America. The other day I read that there are only 17 of them, (with the rest of the 508 commercial airports making up the total [1]). 

Much is said of mega-regions and mega-region planning, but if we really want to talk urbanized areas, we need to talk travel-sheds. (Metro areas are often flawed because inclusion is done on a county-level basis). Suggests to me that we start defining urbanized area by drive to airport.

My wife's parent's would sometimes drive from Tehachepi to Long Beach to pick someone up (about 2 hours and 15 minutes).  

Urban areas get defined by commuter sheds, but in polycentric region, what is within the commuter-shed on one side of the region may not be on the other side of the region. Using airport access as a criterion gets around this particular issue. If you prefer one airport to another, you are within that urban area.

Places with multiple commercial service airports muddy the picture a bit, but might still be delineated as one urban areas, with multiple metropolitan division. 



[1]: https://www.faa.gov/airports/environmental/vale/media/vale_eligible_airports.xlsx

On discount rates

The future is uncertain. Alternate investments exist. Thus, the present value of money is higher than the future value of money. Spending it now means we could do some good now. Spending it now means we can't spend it on other things later. 

How to determine where to spend money? We make some estimates about how much benefit we are going to get for spending it one way versus the other*. Basically, we make some Silly Wild-Ass Guesses (SWAG) about how many people are going to benefit, and how much they are going to benefit. This will involve a certain amount of math, typically in quantifying how much benefit and how much that benefit is worth, which is then multiplied by how many people get the benefits. Do this for both. The one with the larger number wins. If the two things cost different amounts, it's slightly more complex: To get the benefit/cost ratio, you divide the benefit by the respective costs. Again, the bigger number wins. 

 Now, lets talk about time. 'A dollar today is worth more a dollar tomorrow', epigramatically speaking. More realistically might be '$365 today is worth more than $365 in a year'.  Because in that year, you might die, the guy who promised you the $365 might die, hyperinflation might take hold, etc. (Any inflation makes this a truism: a dollar today buys more than it will buy in the future). 'A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush' is a way of reflecting that risk premium. 

But how much less? Nobody knows, but some rate is typically used to assess what percent less money is worth next year than the present year.

* Not spending the money isn't an option in this decision context. If you are evaluating alternatives, you are assuming you've already got (or will get) the money.



Wednesday, April 14, 2021

Maintenance Crisis

 

The primary issue affecting the transportation system is the maintenance crisis (compounded by climate change). The maintenance crisis has three elements: a) the growing stock of assets to be maintained; b) deferral of maintenance in preference for expansion, and c) the resulting deferral of maintenance accelerating deterioration.

As state populations continue to grow, so does demand on the state transportation system. To keep pace with vehicle congestion, state transportation agencies constantly increase road capacity. Increasing capacity means additional lane-miles are being constructed, which then require ongoing maintenance. The ongoing demand for road capacity and increasing stock of maintenance results in maintenance being deferred [[1]]. Politically, road construction provides immediate benefits, while maintenance provides long-term but time-distant benefits. However, in much the same way that failure to patch a roof increases repairs, delayed maintenance accelerates deterioration of roads, such that a constant amount of funding has less effect when applied later [[2]]. Consequently, over time, share of funding devoted to maintenance remains insufficient to maintenance needs [[3]]. Efforts to overcome the maintenance backlog by making critical repairs (a ‘filling pot-holes’) approach is a sub-optimal maintenance regime, as it fails to stop the deterioration of the broader system.

Climate change also acts as an accelerant to this dynamic by inducing more climate extremes in heat, cold, and precipitation. Extremely hot days vaporize asphalt thus increasing the rate of wear. Increased freezing increases frost-heaving (damaging roadbeds beneath pavements). Extreme precipitation results in large sudden floods of water which generates washouts along and beneath the edge of paving.

Current performance measures do a good job regarding these issues, providing an incentive to maintain pavements in the low-maintenance good category and out of the poor category. Problematically, they may incentivize states to engage in ‘pot-hole filling’ by doing the minimum to boost roads into the fair category, which characterizes the phase of most-rapid deterioration on the pavement maintenance curve. In a worse case scenario, decades of such a program result in a road system consisting of marginally good category roads and marginally fair category roads, both high deterioration contexts.  

The second most important trend facing pavements is the decline in the gas tax and accompanying decline in available Federal Funding. The per-gallon rather than per dollar pricing means inflation recurringly eats away at the spending power of the gas tax, requiring iterative increases to the headline rate to provide the same amount of funding. Further, vehicle electrification represents an existential threat to this funding mechanism, by removing the nexus between the impacts of automobile travel and the funding derived from that travel. It undermines the fundamental equity argument for funding roads: roads are paid for by road users. Suggestions include a per-mile vehicle fee, and if such a fee is enacted, given the maintenance impacts of large trucks and the prevalence of weight stations, vehicle mass multiplier to the fee might not be far behind. As an alternate to such ‘soft tolls’, federal funding programs might include a rebate reimbursing states proportionately to the road damage caused by large trucks.

 



[1] https://archive.curbed.com/2019/5/14/18622511/construction-highway-roads-infrastructure-week

[2] https://fixmistate.org/the-rising-costs-of-road-repair/

[3] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-12/america-s-infrastructure-crisis-is-really-a-maintenance-crisis