Against TNCs as transit 2

“Preferably, long distance trips should be transported by fixed route mass transit as much as possible so that system efficiency can be optimized.  On-demand service can focus on short trips that may require higher flexibility.”

Normally, that would be inefficient, as buses can typically hand the short-distance trips at low marginal cost—the bus is already going that way, and seats are plentiful. But with COVID...bus capacity has a whole new meaning.

I remain deeply skeptical that TNCs can handle even the short-distance trips. TNC service is costly: every vehicle requires a driver, every service mile requires an additional .67 non-service ‘dead-head’. Studies say drivers make less than minimum wage, after vehicle depreciation, so much lower wage-costs than CDL trained bus drivers. However, there is probably a fixed # of people who are willing to drive for TNCs, at least on any regular basis, as it’s effectively a minimum wage gig.

It might work, simply thanks to the network effect—more riders, more OD pairs, more ‘dynamic carpooling’, less dead-head miles,  but likely still inferior to regular buses in terms of cost per rider. Which implies less transit service per dollar, and with fixed dollars, less transit service over-all.

It also creates a future hazard—people get used to having subsidized TNC rides, funded by money not being used while buses are out of service. But when demand for buses pick up, the demand for TNC is not going to fall. Then transit agencies would have internal competition for resources between their bus/TNC ‘divisions’ for rider subsidy. Making the reasonable assumption that TNC’s are worse on a per-rider cost basis, more resources devoted to TNC means less devoted to more efficient buses.