Wednesday, June 24, 2020

Panic-buying suburban real estate


Atlantic: Suburbia was never as bad as anyone said it was. Now it’s looking even better



I enjoy the Atlantic, but I feel it’s necessary to recognize it’s essential NYC-centricity, and it’s propensity to be one-sided. Sometimes it’s articles read like (well-written) click-bait.

I regard the present ode to suburbia as something analogous to the panic-buying of toilet-paper. Seems like  good idea now, but regrettable later. People are going to panic-buy all sorts of things they aren’t going to use—chest freezers, etc.  For some people, that will include real estate.

Urban life is bleak right now, with the lock-down, and everything closed. That’s not going to last forever. Nor can everyone can work from home.  2/3 of people already have to be at their place of work to do their job. For the rest—some will keep working at home—they love spending time with family and the lack of commute. I expect those with the worst commutes and/or children will be most enthusiastic. I expect working mothers will be eager adoptees of working from home. I do expect to see enormous demand for home offices on that basis. But I also expect to see co-working spaces come back (albeit in a less open-plan format). However, not everyone can hack working from home, and not everyone is going to like it. I expect we’ll also see a growing backlash that companies are using employees homes rent-free. If working from home becomes more normal, the value of that ‘perk’ is going to decline, especially if their isn’t an option of an office available. I recall an anecdote about a bank in New York which permitted working from home full-time—they still anticipated having 800 desks for 2000 employees.

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