Clothing

As one historian noted, 'Clothing used to be way more expensive, more expensive than you can imagine. Think of spending a years salary on a set of clothes'. Which seems unreal, until you realize until the industrial revolution, every bit of clothing was handmade. Sewn by hand, dyed by hand, woven by hand. 

I feel like that has happened again, even in my lifetime. T-shirts became SWAG, something so cheap to provide that it could be given away.  Working at Einstein's Bagels, my brother used to get a new shirt every month or so. My Dad kept all of them, and wore them. Its easy to make fun of the last generation for wearing T-shirts with all sorts of logos, but times were different--incomes were lower and it was a free shirt (regardless of whatever logo/brand it had scrawled on it).

The cheapness of clothing made it possible for people to have a whole lot of clothing, and hence a wide variety of clothing. And that made style matter. Which in turn drove the explosion in clothing retail across America over the past couple of decades. Accustomed to scarcity, people gorged. But I wonder if part of what is driving the collapse in retail is satiation--the people accustomed to scarcity have swollen closets. And the generation following them has never known that scarcity. The explosion of thrift stores, clothing recyclers, and second-hand boutiques (stuffed with discards from the gluttons) probably contributes, but fundamentally I don't think buying clothes provides the same dopamine surge. 

The increasing affluence of the 'scarcity-induced-glutton-mentality' generation has offset this--moving from Shopko to Loft. But that too will pass. This has major implications for retail, which has major implications for city budgets. Less need for retail space means more vacant retail space, which means falling property values, and smoke-shops and karate studios replace chain stores. Retail structures age fast, much faster than offices or even warehouses. 

Prior to COVID, most of that retail seemed to be on-track to be developed as low-rise elevator apartments (< 7 stories). There was always a conflict there, as the locations ideal for retail (adjacent to wide, high-traffic roads) is less than ideal for human habitation (noise, pollution).

COVID & Retail, Amazon, dressing to impress.

COVID has certainly reshaped retail. My own default has become 'get it on Amazon' for anything except those things that are too bulky to mail (mostly storage containers like trash cans) or perishable (plants, ice-cream). Clothing shopping remains an in-persons activity, due to the need to try things on. But the empty store front and deep sales suggest that is not going so well. People aren't going out so much, and working from home, a T-shirt and shorts does the job. There is, frankly, less need to look good, and the stains/wear that would otherwise be the death-knell for an item of clothing are suddenly less relevant. On the flip side, when people do go out, I see them dressing really well--in event has to be special to bring people out, and the people dress accordingly--making an occasion of it. (Of course, I can only speak for my own milieu-white collar and professional).

 

COVID, Transportation, Urban Economics

The 'natural experiment' of COVID has shown that most white-collar workers can work from home, So millions now work from home, which means millions: a) need a home office, and b) care much less about commuting distance. Urban economics suggests that rent and transport costs being interchangeable, people are going to disperse. Short-term, a surge in suburban prices results, and urban rents fall. Longer term, construction should catch up. My first thought is that will generate a surge in exurban development--after all, when you only commute one day a week, you can afford to live WAAAAY out there. 

But that's an antiquate way of thinking, based on the 'male-breadwinner' suburban pattern, when the reality is that most families are two income (or at least 1.5 income) with a major portion of one partners labor devoted to childcare. And in modern times, 'childcare' means taxiing children to various educational/enrichment appointments. Which suggests that homes are going to remain much more closely tied to urban services than people anticipate.