Monday, July 7, 2025

Birth Rate

Let's play a facts game: Half the birth rate decline is the elimination of teen pregnancy. The other half is the decline in women under 30 having kids. Generally agreed, the first is a good thing, the second a bad thing. Increasing age of first natality is tied to housing. Adding a kid requires adding a bedroom. If you can't afford the bedroom, you don't add the kid. So until houses with 2+ bedrooms are affordable to single-income households ages 20-30, the birth rate will continue to decline. As evidence, I adduce the fact that Provo, Utah (crazy natality) is also stacked with two bedroom apartments. It's the densest part of Utah, because people are totally clear that married studies have kids, and that requires appropriate housing.  Other interesting sub-populations with high birth rates (military families, the church-going) enjoy subsidies--either directly for housing, and indirectly, through care-taking.  

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