Hamish Cambell Gets it

"This is why transit agencies obsess over frequency and easy connections. The difference between trains every 3 minutes versus every 9 minutes is not three times worse. It is exponentially worse. At 3-minute frequency, a missed connection costs 3 minutes. At 9-minute frequency, that missed connection compounds into schedule disruption, late arrivals, and cascading delays through your day. Add capacity problems where you might not fit on the next train, and the costs compound again. You are not just waiting 9 minutes. You are waiting 9 minutes, then maybe another 9, while also managing stress about being late and uncertainty about whether you will even make it on. Research consistently shows riders will choose a slower direct route over a faster route requiring transfers. They are not being irrational. They are avoiding compounding costs that planners can measure but riders simply experience as too much friction."

Hamish Campbell "Why Distance Compounds Costs in Cities"; Cities + Transport 2026 February 2

Key point is the anxiety acts as a travel time multiplier. "If I miss this one, how long do I have to wait for the next one?" Riding the bus already includes anxiety of boarding. Add a transfer doubles that. Reliability overcomes the anxiety. If you can't afford frequency, then you've got to manage reliability. Clockface scheduling is great, but--if you promise a bus every 15 minutes, but can't deliver, that's worse than not promising anything.