Showing posts with label investment. Show all posts
Showing posts with label investment. Show all posts

Friday, August 22, 2025

Appreciation Expectations

 My experience with the Great Recession in the US suggests that one of the things that makes unwinding a property boom difficult is that an expectation of appreciation (due to limited supply) has become baked into housing prices. So even if house prices don't fall, even a reduction in the rate of appreciation is hurtful a wide variety of owners, from long-term householders to brand new purchasers.

You just have to think about a house as a financial instrument, like a stock or a bond. It provides a dividend (in terms of rental income, or owners equivalent rent), is a security is costs money to acquire. But like a 'growth stock', there is an expectation that the value will increase over time. 

There used to be a lot of debate over whether housing was a good investment or not. That's died down, largely because I think the empirical data is clear--it's not. The difference is largely due to dividends--you can reinvest the dividends from money you put in the market in the market. But you cannot reinvest the  benefits of having been provided housing.