Tuesday, August 2, 2011

"And there is nothing you can do about it".

According to Chris Nelson, to match the ability of the population to pay for housing to the housing supply, every unit of housing built between now and 2020 would need to be a rental. That clearly is not going to happen--but the distribution of prices has to match the distribution of income. So the system will have to reach equilibrium by converting existing owned homes into rental units--either the owner renting it out, or renting out part of the house (joint tenure). 

Further, changing preferences mean we have a massive oversupply of exurban large-lot homes. Massive oversupply, combined with falling demand, and the prices is going to crash. Which means you are going to have a lot of poor people living in the suburbs, despite what they may want."What people want, and what people have to settle for".  Now, all my planning education told me that was the eventual outcome of things--but I didn't expect it to happen so soon. 2020 is a real year, it's coming, I will be alive to see it. The world will be a very different place in my lifetime, and I know what that world will be like. 

Time to buy urban land, I guess.

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