Showing posts with label interest rates. Show all posts
Showing posts with label interest rates. Show all posts

Friday, July 31, 2026

Peak Homebuying Window

 People decry high interest rates, but buying a house after a long spell of high interest rates is actually amazing: Once you buy the price is fixed--but you can always refinance to a lower rate. Admittedly, when rates spike, the housing market shuts down, and no one buys anything. Housing prices are sticky, so it takes a long time for them to adjust to lower prices. However, high rates also mean inflation, which takes the sting away: inflation drives housing prices up, even as financing costs are trying to drive them down.

Housing prices aren't a measure of affordability--the monthly payment is. And there is a mathematical relationship between interest rate and the price of an asset. In Economese: "When rates rise, the discount rate increases, reducing the present value of future cash flows and lowering asset prices"


When rates are low, both building* and borrowing are easy. But when rates rise, it costs more to borrow money, raising the monthly payment for the same loan amount. But income does not rise with financing costs, so buyers can only manage a smaller loan, for a worse location. Less demand for houses in better locations, and with fixed supply, that should lower prices. But house prices are sticky--someone who bought a house for $500,000 isn't going to sell it for $400,000 (How would they pay off their mortgage?).


But while rates remain high, the value of the home has fallen. It falls to inflation to balance things out. Over eleven years, even at 2% inflation, values go up 25%, and some with a $500,000 mortgage can sell for $500,000.


The best time to buy a house is always when rates fall - homeowners don't mentally reprice their asking price, even when shifts in the mortgage rate radically affect monthly payments. For example, on a $300,000 mortgage over 30 years:

At 3%: ~$1,265/month

At 4%: ~$1,432/month

Difference: ~$167/month (or ~$60,000 total over 30 years)


If an income previously supported a $1432/month mortgage payment at 4%, and rates drop to 3%, that supports an additional $35,000 worth of mortgage. A change that realtors have long** been slow to price in.


The 'Golden Age' is when rates have been high for a long time (long enough for inflation to 'float' everyone trapped in by a lower rate mortgage) and then rates start to come down.

*Builders operate almost entirely using borrowed money. When rates rise, it affects builders first. Even after they cease production of new houses, it takes months for homes under construction to finish, so the 'pipeline' of new stock that affects supply takes weeks to run dry.


**Less true today, thanks to Zillow and similar services, which have a large customer base, letting them spread research and analysis costs over multiple customers, enabling level of home price analysis far beyond the historical norm. Realtors were long dependent on 'comps' (comparisons) for recently sold homes, which lagged market prices by months. 


Friday, September 26, 2025

Interest rates, planners, developers

Real estate developers talk endlessly about interest rates, but they don't matter in a planning context. Developers make their living at the margin--they make money when they can land before the owners become aware that an interest rate reduction has raised the value of their land. (When rates rise, development locks up until inflation reprices sticky land-values to match their fundamental value). But in planning context, the average over time generates an equilibrium where interest rates don't matter. Temporary dis-equilbria just average out over time. And if it doesn't, who cares? Development that didn't happen isn't going to get you fired. But if you are a developer, it's an existential issue--can you get planners to permit your development in that window between when rates move and when the ground gets repriced?

Development is a market with imperfect information, with a lot of independent developers responding to the same market signal--rising rents. However, developers have limited information about how much competing supply (new units) are coming on the market. While its possible to know about permits pulled, or development applications, or zoning changes, (and believe me, developers pay attention to that) it's impossible to know how many competing projects are in earlier stages of development.

It takes a while for a long, multi-actor process (involving land-owner, developer, lender, city planner, development review, city council, etc.) to play out, so development tends to happen in booms (minimal supply meeting huge demand) followed by busts (excess supply meeting slackening demand). Early in a development cycle, few recognize or respond to the market signals, and there is a lot of money to be made, and late in the cycle, much to be lost. So once the cycle starts, every developer wants to get their development into production/sale as fast as possible.