The cycle goes like this:
You have a metro area. Metro areas are always expanding. Infill development is almost non-existent, because it's cheaper to build on the edge.
Suburban development runs like this: A developer buys a parcel of farmland, creates a subdivision plan, and creates 'paper' lots. They then sell to a builder, who takes the plan and does the actual construction: utilities first (sewer, water, electric) and then the houses. Roads get done after the foundations are poured. The the houses 'got vertical'.
The land buyer buys at a certain price per acre, and holds the land until it becomes valuable enough for suburban development. Rule of thumb is that the land cost is 20% of the house, so a $200k hour will sit on $40k of land. Assuming a quarter acre lot, that's $160k/acre.
Now, there are people who want more land (for farming or a quasi-rural lifestyle or for keeping horses). They want about 5 acres, but can't afford afford it at $160k/acre. So they go even further out, paste the edge of the metro area, and buy farm land at $20k/acre from Farmer John.
Ten years later, the metro area has expanded, and the land prices have increased. So the farmer next door to Farmer John sells out, at $40k/acre. But since the land price has doubled, new residents can only afford half as much, so the new in-movers take 2.5 acres. Big enough for horses, but too small to plow. Ten year after that, the land brokers start buying land at $80k. Ten years after that, developers buy that at $160k, and develop it as subdivisions.
So the land is a mix of farmland, 'hobby farms', horse property, and new subdivisions. In a few decades, the rest of the farmland will be subdivided and the 'hobby farms' developed as townhomes.
You have a metro area. Metro areas are always expanding. Infill development is almost non-existent, because it's cheaper to build on the edge.
Suburban development runs like this: A developer buys a parcel of farmland, creates a subdivision plan, and creates 'paper' lots. They then sell to a builder, who takes the plan and does the actual construction: utilities first (sewer, water, electric) and then the houses. Roads get done after the foundations are poured. The the houses 'got vertical'.
The land buyer buys at a certain price per acre, and holds the land until it becomes valuable enough for suburban development. Rule of thumb is that the land cost is 20% of the house, so a $200k hour will sit on $40k of land. Assuming a quarter acre lot, that's $160k/acre.
Now, there are people who want more land (for farming or a quasi-rural lifestyle or for keeping horses). They want about 5 acres, but can't afford afford it at $160k/acre. So they go even further out, paste the edge of the metro area, and buy farm land at $20k/acre from Farmer John.
Ten years later, the metro area has expanded, and the land prices have increased. So the farmer next door to Farmer John sells out, at $40k/acre. But since the land price has doubled, new residents can only afford half as much, so the new in-movers take 2.5 acres. Big enough for horses, but too small to plow. Ten year after that, the land brokers start buying land at $80k. Ten years after that, developers buy that at $160k, and develop it as subdivisions.
So the land is a mix of farmland, 'hobby farms', horse property, and new subdivisions. In a few decades, the rest of the farmland will be subdivided and the 'hobby farms' developed as townhomes.
